Svitolina and Kostyuk’s Ranking Prospects: Race for the Top 10, Ukraine’s No. 1 Spot, and the WTA Finals

Svitolina and Kostyuk’s Ranking Prospects: Race for the Top 10, Ukraine’s No. 1 Spot, and the WTA Finals
Photo: btu.org.ua

Following the conclusion of the grass-court season, Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk sit side by side in the world rankings and remain well positioned to finish the year among the world’s top 10 players.

As of July 24, Svitolina is ranked No. 9 in the WTA rankings with 4,459 points. Kostyuk follows closely in 11th place with 3,925 points, trailing her compatriot by 424 points. This was reported by BTU.

At the same time, both Ukrainians are inside the top 10 of the WTA Race, which takes into account only results from the current season. Svitolina sits fifth, while Kostyuk is ninth.

Ukrainians’ Positions in the WTA Rankings

RankPlayerPointsDifference to Marta Kostyuk
7Linda Nosková5,119+1,193
8Iga Świątek4,539+613
9Amanda Anisimova4,353+427
10Elina Svitolina4,351+425
11Marta Kostyuk3,926
12Victoria Mboko3,570–356
13Naomi Osaka3,146–780
14Belinda Bencic2,845–1,081
15Jasmine Paolini2,783–1,143

Thus, Kostyuk is only 425 points away from making her top-10 debut. At the same time, Marta has a 356-point lead over her closest pursuer, Victoria Mboko. Given that the Canadian will miss the North American hard-court swing due to a knee injury, Kostyuk’s chances of maintaining her position look very promising.

Of course, it should be taken into account that the Ukrainian’s ranking will depend not only on her own results but also on the performances of Svitolina, Anisimova, Świątek, and other players from this group.

WTA Race Standings

RankPlayerWTA Race Points
1Mirra Andreeva4,999
2Aryna Sabalenka4,945
3Elena Rybakina4,627
4Karolina Muchová4,270
5Elina Svitolina4,116
6Jessica Pegula3,950
7Linda Nosková3,674
8Coco Gauff3,484
9Marta Kostyuk3,275
10Victoria Mboko2,393
11Sorana Cîrstea2,045
12Iga Świątek1,954

Svitolina is currently inside the qualifying zone and holds an 841-point lead over Kostyuk, who sits in ninth place. Elina’s advantage over the 10th position is more than 1,700 points, meaning the Ukrainian has a strong cushion in the race for her debut appearance at the WTA Finals since returning to the Tour.

Kostyuk is only 209 points behind eighth-placed Coco Gauff. Formally, Marta could move into the qualifying zone after just one strong WTA 1000 tournament. For example, reaching the quarterfinals in Toronto would earn 215 points. However, this calculation does not take into account Gauff’s own results or those of other contenders.

It is important not to confuse the two rankings. In the WTA Race, points from the previous season are not defended: players only add the results they achieve during the 2026 season. The WTA rankings, meanwhile, operate on a 52-week system, meaning points earned last year are gradually dropped.

What Elina Svitolina Has to Defend

Over the next two months, Svitolina needs to defend just 235 points. Almost all of them were earned last year at the Montreal tournament, where the Ukrainian reached the quarterfinals.

Points Elina Svitolina Has to Defend

TournamentDates2025 ResultPoints to Defend
Washington (WTA 500)July 27 – Aug. 2Did not play0
Toronto (WTA 1000)Aug. 3 – 13Quarterfinals in Montreal215
Cincinnati (WTA 1000)Aug. 13 – 23Lost in opening match10
US OpenAug. 31 – Sept. 13First round10
Total235

This is a highly favorable situation for Svitolina. Even if she fails to match her quarterfinal run at the Canadian WTA 1000 event, she could make up for the lost points in Washington, Cincinnati, or at the US Open.

The American major presents particularly significant opportunities. Last year, Svitolina was upset by Anna Bondár in the first round, meaning that virtually any win in New York would earn her additional ranking points.

In 2025, the Ukrainian ended her season early in late September and did not compete during the Asian swing. As a result, she will have no ranking points to defend after the US Open until January 2027. This makes September and October potentially the most advantageous stretch of the season for Svitolina.

What Marta Kostyuk Has to Defend

Marta’s situation is more complicated: by the end of the US Open, she will have to defend 520 points. The majority of those points come from her quarterfinal run at the Canadian tournament and her fourth-round appearance at the US Open.

Points Marta Kostyuk Has to Defend

TournamentDates2025 ResultPoints to Defend
Washington (WTA 500)July 27 – Aug. 2First round1
Toronto (WTA 1000)Aug. 3 – 13Quarterfinals at the Canadian tournament215
Cincinnati (WTA 1000)Aug. 13 – 23Third round, withdrew before her next match65
US OpenAug. 31 – Sept. 13Fourth round240
Total520

Kostyuk has opted to skip this year’s tournament in Washington and will begin her North American hard-court swing in Toronto. Her result in Washington last year does not count toward her current ranking total, meaning she will not lose any points from missing the event.

In Toronto, she will need to reach the quarterfinals again to fully defend the 215 points earned there last year. In Cincinnati, she must match her third-round showing, while at the US Open she will need to reach at least the fourth round.

After the North American swing concludes, Kostyuk will still have 130 ranking points to defend: 120 for reaching the fourth round of the WTA 1000 event in Beijing and 10 for her opening-match result at the WTA 1000 tournament in Wuhan.

As a result, from the start of the Washington tournament through the end of the Wuhan event, Kostyuk will have a total of 650 points to defend. Over the same period, Svitolina will be defending just 235 points, having ended her 2025 season before the start of the Asian swing.

Main Rivals

For Svitolina, the primary objective at this stage is to solidify her place in the top 10 and secure a spot inside the top eight of the WTA Race. In the battle for a place at the WTA Finals, her closest rivals are Jessica Pegula, Linda Nosková, Coco Gauff, and Marta Kostyuk.

Svitolina currently holds an 841-point advantage over the ninth position in the Race. One deep run at a WTA 1000 event or a Grand Slam could make her position heading into the autumn portion of the season extremely comfortable.

Kostyuk, meanwhile, will primarily be competing with Gauff and Nosková for a place in the top eight of the WTA Race. In the regular WTA rankings, her closest targets remain Svitolina, Anisimova, and Iga Świątek.

How Many Points Do the Ukrainians’ Main Rivals Have to Defend?

When assessing the prospects of Svitolina and Kostyuk, it is important to consider not only their own results but also the ranking commitments of their closest rivals. During the North American hard-court swing, the heaviest points to defend among this group belong to Iga Świątek, Naomi Osaka, and Amanda Anisimova.

Points Defended by Top-15 Players Through the End of the US Open

No.PlayerPrague / WashingtonCanadaCincinnatiMonterrey / ClevelandUS OpenTotal
1Aryna Sabalenka0021502,0002,215
2Elena Rybakina19539039002401,215
3Jessica Pegula165650780901
4Coco Gauff01202150240575
5Mirra Andreeva03500130165
6Karolína Muchová0120650430615
7Linda Nosková1631010108130421
8Iga Świątek01201,00004301,550
9Amanda Anisimova01203501,3001,455
10Elina Svitolina021510010235
11Marta Kostyuk1215650240520
12Victoria Mboko601,00000101,070
13Naomi Osaka60650007801,490
14Belinda Bencic06510070145
15Jasmine Paolini0106500130790

What This Situation Means for Svitolina

Among the players ranked around the Ukrainians, Svitolina has one of the lightest points-defending burdens. Through the end of the US Open, she is defending just 235 points. Only Linda Nosková and Belinda Bencic have fewer points to defend.

The key event for Elina will be Toronto, where she needs to match last year’s quarterfinal run at the Canadian tournament. At the same time, she is defending only 10 points in Cincinnati and another 10 at the US Open. This means that after Toronto, virtually every additional win will add to her ranking total.

Świątek and Anisimova, who are only 188 and two points ahead of Svitolina respectively, will face much greater pressure. The Pole is defending her Cincinnati title and a US Open quarterfinal, for a total of 1,550 points. Anisimova, meanwhile, must back up her run to the US Open final and is defending 1,455 points overall.

As a result, Svitolina could realistically climb to eighth or ninth in the rankings even without reaching finals or winning titles. To do so, she would need to put together a series of consistent runs, while Świątek or Anisimova fail to fully replicate their results from last year.

What This Situation Means for Kostyuk

Kostyuk is defending 520 points — more than Svitolina, Nosková, and Bencic, but significantly fewer than Świątek, Anisimova, Mboko, and Osaka.

Marta’s most realistic targets are Anisimova and Świątek. The American currently leads Kostyuk by 427 points, but she is defending 935 more points than the Ukrainian. Świątek’s advantage over Marta stands at 613 points, while the Pole has 1,029 more points to defend.

If Kostyuk matches her 2025 results and Anisimova fails to reach the US Open final or Świątek does not successfully defend her Cincinnati title, the Ukrainian will have a genuine opportunity to move ahead of both players in the rankings.

Catching Nosková will be considerably more difficult. The Czech holds a 1,193-point advantage over Kostyuk while defending only 150 points. To close such a gap, Marta will likely need at least one major result — a semifinal or final run at a WTA 1000 event or the US Open.

Can Kostyuk Become Ukraine’s No. 1 Player?

The current gap of 425 points is certainly one that can be erased over the course of one or two major tournaments. At the same time, Svitolina currently has the more favorable points-defending schedule: through the US Open, Elina is defending 235 points, while Marta is defending 520.

If both players produce similar results during the North American hard-court swing, Svitolina’s advantage is likely to grow. To overtake her compatriot, Kostyuk will need to significantly outperform Elina — for example, by advancing several rounds further at one of the WTA 1000 events or at the US Open.

As a result, a change at the top of Ukrainian women’s tennis as early as August is possible, but it cannot be considered the most likely scenario.

Overall, Elina Svitolina enters the North American and Asian swings in a more favorable ranking position. She has relatively few points to defend, sits fifth in the WTA Race, and has a realistic chance of qualifying for the WTA Finals for the first time since 2019.

The next two months will be more challenging for Kostyuk, who must defend points from her quarterfinal run at the Canadian tournament and her fourth-round appearance at the US Open. At the same time, Marta is only 209 points away from the top-eight cutoff in the WTA Race and 425 points away from becoming Ukraine’s No. 1 player.

One deep run at a WTA 1000 event or a Grand Slam could significantly alter the outlook for both Ukrainians. For Svitolina, it would be an opportunity to cement her place among the season’s top eight players. For Kostyuk, it could mean a top-10 debut, the status of Ukraine’s top-ranked player, and a place in the race for a first-ever berth at the WTA Finals.

Ukrainian stars Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk will both compete in the round of 16 at the WTA 1000 National Bank Open in Toronto on Saturday, with Svitolina facing Amanda Anisimova and Kostyuk taking on world No. 7 Iga Świątek.

Day-session matches starting at 12:30 p.m. local time and the night session beginning at 7:00 p.m. (exact court assignments and start times to be confirmed in the WTA Tour official website).

EMPR

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