Russia Poised for Major Offensive in Ukraine: Key Frontline Areas at Risk

The Russians have intensified activity on several sections of the front, which may indicate the start of a major offensive campaign. However, experts say the enemy faces several problems that could hinder this.

In particular, the Defense Forces are extremely effective in targeting concentrations of Russians preparing to advance. Experts assessed whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to fully repel the enemy’s offensive, where the heaviest fighting will take place, and why the Russian army is now in a rush to achieve new “victories.”

24 Kanal reveals.

Where is the enemy currently active, and how are the Armed Forces of Ukraine responding?

There is no specific date for the start of a major Russian offensive. Previously, they had planned both autumn and winter offensives, which never resulted in significant successes for the enemy. Army General and former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Mykola Malomuzh, pointed out that in the first weeks of March, the Russians did indeed try to push through Ukrainian positions, from the Sumy region to Huliaipole.

“The enemy also tried to advance in the Pokrovsk direction. But our soldiers detected the preparation for the offensive in advance and delivered systematic strikes. This is one of the factors that neutralized the Russians’ ability to capture Pokrovsk, expand operations near Myrnohrad, and then move toward Kostiantynivka,” Malomuzh noted.

In addition, the Russians tried to advance in southern Ukraine, particularly near Huliaipole. However, there the Defense Forces managed to stabilize the situation by counterattacking the enemy.

“We not only changed our defensive tactics but also began destroying units that were merely preparing for attacks. We learned that experienced units were being temporarily redeployed from Pokrovsk to Huliaipole. We carried out systematic strikes using drones, missile systems, and aviation, destroying these reserves. The enemy’s attacks never materialized,” the army general explained.

It is important to understand that Ukrainian defenders have achieved truly decisive successes. In particular, there are reports of liberated territories in the Oleksandrivka and Zaporizhzhia directions, and partially near Pokrovsk.

A landmark operation by the Defense Forces took place in Kupiansk, where a large Russian formation that had attempted — and in some areas even entered — the city was destroyed. Ukraine continues to prepare for renewed enemy activity in order to neutralize potential threats.

When will the Russians launch a large-scale offensive?

Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, pilot instructor, and military expert Roman Svitan noted that the Russians have intensified activity on the front partly due to the approaching sacred date for them — May 9. Every year, the battlefield heats up just before this date.

“I wouldn’t call this an offensive; it’s a spring escalation. By May 9, Putin needs to show something to his people, capture a city or at least one building, and turn it into a ‘great victory,’” Svitan said.

The military expert also added that the most difficult situation on the battlefield could arise at the beginning of April — one month before May 9. That is when the Russians may start larger-scale offensive operations.

“They are currently conducting shaping operations along the entire front line. Russian activity stretches from Kherson, where they are moving onto islands in the Dnipro delta, to the Sumy direction. At the moment, this is reconnaissance by combat — there are occasional assaults — but the main offensive operation will still take place in about a week to a week and a half,” emphasized the reserve colonel.

While the occupiers try to find weak points in the Ukrainian defense, they may later redeploy more forces and resources there. Most likely, there will be no more than two main directions for the strike. Ultimately, they could even narrow it down to one.

Svitan also believes that closer to summer, Putin will have to implement forced mobilization, as recruitment alone is not yielding the required number of soldiers. Later, when more people are mobilized and trained, strategic offensive operations may begin on the front: an advance on Zaporizhzhia and greater pressure in Donetsk.

Which directions on the front will be the hottest?

Earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that during 2026, Russia plans to draft an additional 409,000 contract soldiers for the war against Ukraine. At the same time, such a number of troops will not be enough to significantly strengthen the Russian forces on the battlefield, military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi noted.

“If you divide 409,000 by 12, you get 34,000 per month. This is solely to cover current losses. It indicates that the Russians want to continue a war of attrition. Their main bet is that we won’t hold out,” Narozhnyi explained.

It is also noteworthy that the Russians may redeploy mobilized troops from Crimea to the hottest front-line areas. Although they were previously promised that they would serve only on the peninsula — in Sevastopol or Simferopol — the enemy also plans to involve mobilized personnel from other occupied territories of Ukraine, including Zaporizhzhia region.

Attention! Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, stated that Ukraine is already destroying more enemy troops than Russia can mobilize. According to him, since the beginning of winter, Ukrainian drones have killed or disabled at least 8,776 more soldiers than Russia has replaced.

The main directions of the enemy’s strike are not new. These are the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration and Sloviansk. According to military experts, this is where the Russians may concentrate their main attack, as they continue to apply the greatest pressure there even now.

“The enemy is not likely to become active in the Sumy or Kharkiv directions. This is unlikely given the availability of their human resources. At the same time, exerting pressure on multiple directions would be extremely difficult for them,” the military expert emphasized.

Ukraine can counter the plans of the Russian command — and is already actively doing so. This includes significantly reducing Ukrainian losses on the battlefield. To achieve this, Narozhnyi believes it is necessary to make greater use of missile and rocket systems, build better and stronger fortifications that make it difficult to dislodge our soldiers, and enhance the work of artillery and drones so the enemy cannot even reach our infantry.

What is happening on the battlefield now: in brief

Heavy fighting continues north of Pokrovsk, where the Russians are still amassing forces. Recently, they attempted an assault using motorized vehicles and lightly armored MT-LBs. In the end, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported successfully repelling the attack, destroying some of the enemy equipment even before it reached their positions.

On March 24, it was reported that the Defense Forces successfully cleared the village of Minkivka in Donetsk, where Russian troops had planned to advance. This settlement is a tactically important point on the Bakhmut–Sloviansk route. As a result of successful operations, 40 Russian soldiers were eliminated.

Fighting is also ongoing around Huliaipole. The Russian command is sending both large numbers of troops and equipment there, including tanks, armored vehicles, and motorcycles. By targeting their supply routes, Ukrainian forces have managed to destroy these enemy forces.

EMPR