The first day after the Russian drone attack on Poland clearly demonstrated what Russian aggression against the countries of NATO’s eastern flank would look like. In fact, this aggression has already begun.
Mykola Knyazhytskyy reveals.
1. To begin with, let’s recall: why does Putin need to attack NATO?
With the start of the full-scale invasion, we received enough evidence that the “aggressive NATO bloc” exists mostly on paper. There has been nothing aggressive about it for a long time. Except for the United States, no NATO country is capable of defending itself—the national armies of most countries are neglected, lacking equipment, ammunition, and soldiers ready to fight under the conditions of modern warfare.
That is, NATO neither in 2021, when Putin presented his ultimatum, nor now represents any kind of military threat to Russia.
At the same time, NATO clearly poses a political threat to Russia. After all, all the countries that became members of the Alliance have definitively left Russia’s sphere of influence. Therefore, Putin can theoretically hope that through threats or bribery he might tie Ukraine, Georgia, or Azerbaijan to himself. But he has no chance of doing the same with Poland, Latvia, or Finland. Even Hungary and Slovakia are a million times more independent in their relations with Putin than, for example, Belarus or Kazakhstan.
It is worth recalling that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began with Russia’s ultimatum to NATO: “Pack up your belongings and get back to the 1997 borders.”
And although NATO has indeed never created any military threats to Russia as a state, the Alliance does pose real threats to Putin’s political regime. That is why the collapse of NATO, or at least the abandonment of defending the countries of Eastern Europe admitted after 1997, has been and remains a priority of Putin’s policy.
In the end, Russian propaganda itself says this outright: Russia is not at war with Ukraine. Russia is at war with NATO on the territory of Ukraine. And NATO can only be defeated by striking NATO directly.
2. How does Russia begin to dismantle NATO, using Poland as an example?
It is clear that aggression against NATO will differ from the invasion of Ukraine. The recent attack on Poland showed that the beginning of the war will be imperceptible. No one will feel that it has already started.
We heard the story of how drones flew into Poland. The numbers vary: 10, 19, or even 23. Three of them were shot down, maybe four. But it turned out that the drones carried no explosives, they came from Belarus, and the Belarusian Ministry of Defense had even warned its Polish colleagues in advance that “unidentified objects are flying toward you.” As a result, no one was killed, no one was injured, and the damage was minimal. Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense added that, “first of all, our drones cannot reach Poland”—hinting that either these were Ukrainian drones, or perhaps the Poles launched them themselves against their own territory. And in general, they were “ready for constructive cooperation” to figure out what really happened. Is this enough to invoke Article 5 and start a world war?
Thus, a world war did not begin, but it was demonstrated that Russian drones can freely and without any risk enter Polish airspace. And a few months later, we would see how drones—and later missiles—move freely in the skies over Poland, Latvia, Romania, constantly flying without even the risk of being shot down. Unpleasant, yes, but still not enough to start a world war.
Then a Shahed hits some rural warehouse with humanitarian aid. No one is killed, just some burnt baby diapers scattered across the field. Maybe even by accident, as some local politicians say. Surely no one will start World War III over burnt diapers?
Thus, the territory of Eastern Europe gradually turns into a gray zone where things constantly fly, explode, and occasionally people die. From time to time, military depots or defense enterprises blow up, but the police cannot quickly prove the Russian trace. The EU expresses deep concern, the U.S. president writes posts in capital letters saying that as long as he is president there will be no war, and local residents get used to the new normality.
As a result, in Eastern European countries people become convinced of NATO’s helplessness and the Alliance’s inability to guarantee their security. Membership in the Alliance loses its meaning—it only drains money for militarization. After one or several election cycles, pro-Russian populists, funded by Moscow, come to power in these countries, turning public opinion toward leaving NATO and moving under Moscow’s wing. After all, unlike NATO, Moscow is “able to end this horror and restore a peaceful life.”
The scenario is terrifying. Some will say it is even conspiratorial. But admit it: just five years ago, the idea of two dozen Russian combat drones in Polish airspace also seemed like conspiracy theory and nonsense. And today, it is not even perceived as escalation. Because surely no one will start World War III over some drones?
Tags: NATO
