Ukraine faces a severe demographic crisis, with population decline, low birth rates, high mortality, and labor shortages threatening postwar recovery despite government efforts to reverse the trend.
According to estimates from the Institute of Demography at the National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine’s population — which stood at 42 million before Russia’s full-scale invasion — has already fallen to 36 million. By 2051, this figure is expected to drop to 25 million.
This was reported in a Reuters article cited by Censor.NET.
What the forecasts show for Ukraine
UN projections are no less alarming: between 9 million and 23 million people by the year 2100.
According to the CIA World Factbook for 2024, Ukraine has the world’s highest mortality rate and one of the lowest birth rates: on average, three deaths for every newborn.
- The worst demographic situation is in Kherson region (11 deaths per one birth) and Donetsk region (8.5/1), while the best indicators are in Rivne region (1.6/1), Volyn, and Zakarpattia (1.6/1).
- The average life expectancy for men in Ukraine has dropped from 65.2 years before the war to 57.3 years in 2024. For women, it has declined from 74.4 to 70.9 years.
Millions of people will be needed to rebuild the country after the war
Experts note that Ukraine will need millions of people to rebuild its devastated economy and defend itself in the postwar future, should Moscow attack again — something many Ukrainians fear.
Last year, the Kyiv government attempted to address this crisis by developing a demographic strategy through 2040. The document stated that over the next decade Ukraine will face a shortage of 4.5 million workers. The most in-demand sectors will be construction, technology, and administrative services.
The strategy focuses on stopping further emigration and bringing Ukrainians back from abroad — in particular by improving housing, infrastructure, and education — as well as attracting immigrants from other countries if jobs remain unfilled.
Authorities believe these measures could increase the population to 34 million by 2040, but they also warn that it may fall to 29 million if current trends continue.
