Russia Prepares Maritime Drones Against Ukraine: Is a New Battle for the Black Sea About to Begin?

The struggle for control of the sea in the war with Russia is entering a new phase. The Russians are copying Ukraine’s experience in using maritime drones and are preparing for their large-scale deployment.

What threat could Russian maritime drones pose not only to Ukraine but also potentially to NATO countries, and what is known about Russian developments – in the report by RBC-Ukraine.

Key points:

On the Kremlin’s strategy: Russia sees maritime drones as part of a plan to pressure Ukrainian shipping and effectively blockade the Black Sea.

On intelligence assessment: The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense notes an increasing threat and the possible shift of some drones to large-scale use.

On potential targets: Ukrainian ports, logistics, and shipping remain at risk.

On the role of maritime drones in the war: Experts believe that for Russia, they are still a “future-oriented” tool.

On the long-term risk: Russia is systematically developing its maritime drone capabilities as an investment in potential future naval warfare scenarios.

Russian forces have stepped up pressure on Ukrainian port infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea. Moscow is carrying out regular strikes on key economic and logistics facilities. In particular, missile attacks are targeting the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Izmail, as the enemy seeks to disrupt the operation of Ukraine’s maritime infrastructure.

In this context, the technological threat from Russia is also increasing: the enemy has announced the development of a new maritime unmanned carrier boat called “Skorlupa.” This drone is reportedly capable not only of operating at sea but also of carrying FPV drones for potential attacks toward Odesa and Mykolaiv — distances that fall within the stated technical specifications of these systems.

These events — from strikes on ports to the emergence of new maritime UAVs — call into question the security of Ukraine’s critically important sea corridors and force a heightened focus on the development and deployment of unmanned systems at sea.

Kremlin’s Objective: Blockade of the Black Sea

The development of Russian maritime drones fits into the broader Kremlin strategy regarding the Black Sea. According to RBC-Ukraine sources in military-political circles, Russian President Vladimir Putin has tasked officials with ensuring an effective blockade of the Black Sea and exerting pressure on Ukrainian shipping as a key element of the war against Ukraine.

“For the Kremlin, control over the Black Sea is not just about military presence. It’s about the economy, logistics, exports, insurance, and psychological pressure on Ukraine’s international partners,” explains one of the publication’s sources.

This is about creating leverage over Ukrainian exports, international trade routes, shipowners, and insurance companies. That is why Russia is exploring various ways to influence the situation in the waters — from missile strikes and mine-laying to the development of maritime drones.

Within this framework, maritime drones are seen as one of the potential tools to achieve this objective, even if they have not yet produced the desired effect.

Military Intelligence Assessment: The Threat Is Growing

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense confirms that Russia is actively developing maritime unmanned systems, though this field remains largely experimental for now.

In a comment to RBC-Ukraine, the Directorate noted that the threat level posed by Russian maritime drones is steadily increasing.

Over the past year, Russia has moved from conceptual design to active testing and attempts at serial production. At the same time, most projects are still in the development or experimental combat-use stages.

According to intelligence reports, only isolated cases of trial or occasional use of Russian surface and underwater drones have been recorded, including the “Skat” and “Tryton” types.

There has been no systematic or effective use of these systems to achieve significant combat impact so far. However, the “Tryton” drone may be prepared for attacks on civilian shipping and Ukraine’s port infrastructure.

“At the same time, existing production plans (including up to 40 units of the ‘Skat’ type per month) indicate the adversary’s intention to move toward a tactic of mass deployment,” the military intelligence reported.

The Main Intelligence Directorate also highlights the development of the autonomous underwater vehicle “Prosvet-1,” which is being created to counter Ukrainian underwater unmanned systems. This indicates Russia’s attempts to establish a layered underwater defense.

Among the most likely scenarios for the use of this vehicle are the protection of fleet bases, patrolling coastal waters, serving as communication relays, and potential attempts to affect Ukrainian shipping and port infrastructure.

Late Start and Copying Ukrainian Drones

Russia is indeed moving toward the development of maritime drones, but it is doing so with a significant delay, sources told RBC-Ukraine.

“They operated for a long time within the logic of a classic fleet: ships, submarines, aviation. Only when it became clear that these tools were not delivering the desired results did they begin looking for alternatives in drones,” explained a military source to the publication.

The problem lies not so much in the availability of hulls or explosives, but in the lack of a well-developed deployment system. The concept of a simple maritime kamikaze drone, existing as a standalone strike tool, has already effectively lost its relevance.

Modern unmanned warfare requires more complex, multi-layered solutions—with intelligence, stable communications, relay capabilities, and integration into an overall strike system. These are precisely the elements that remain the weakest point in Russian developments. And these are the elements Russia is trying to copy from Ukrainian drones.

The spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, Dmytro Pletenchuk, told the publication that Russian maritime drone developments are largely an attempt to replicate the Ukrainian approach, which has proven effective against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

“They are not copying a specific drone. They are copying the logic: a fast platform, low visibility, modularity, and attempts at system integration,” he explained.

According to him, the Russians face problems accessing components, as well as difficulties with communications and navigation. Without these, a maritime drone becomes poorly controllable and largely ineffective.

Why Maritime Drones Have Not Become Russia’s Main Weapon

Despite showcasing new boats and developments, the Kremlin currently has no reason to make maritime drones the primary tool of pressure on Ukraine.

Defense Express expert Oleg Katkov points out that Russia already has a far more effective and well-tested tool — air drones and missiles, which are used massively and systematically.

“They have missiles. They have ‘Shaheds,’ which operate regularly and against a wide range of targets. Why complicate the scheme and deploy a maritime drone if the effect is much smaller?” he explains.

According to Katkov, Ukraine has few large maritime targets. The Ukrainian fleet does not operate in large ship formations in open waters, and most operations are asymmetric in nature. Hunting individual targets with maritime drones is a complex operation with minimal results.

In addition, a maritime drone must be physically brought to the area of operation and provided with communication, navigation, and coordination with intelligence. This makes the operation far more complex and costly than launching an aerial drone.

Therefore, according to RBC-Ukraine sources, maritime drones are currently, for Russia, more of a “long-term” area of work rather than a tool capable of significantly changing the situation right now.

What Russia Already Has: Not Just One Development, but a Whole Direction

Despite all limitations, Russia has not halted work on maritime drones and is trying to develop multiple platforms for different tasks. Some of these developments date back to pre-war programs — unmanned boats used for mine countermeasures. They are not strike-capable but provided Russia with a technical base: hulls, navigation solutions, and remote control experience.

The new wave consists of strike and multi-purpose unmanned boats that Russia is trying to adapt for various applications. In open sources, names such as “Oduvanchyk,” “Murena,” “Vizyr,” and “Katran” regularly appear.

This is not about isolated experiments. Russia is simultaneously testing several concepts: simple strike platforms with large warheads, platforms with enhanced sensor capabilities (cameras, thermal imagers), and also carrier-boat ideas for smaller drones that can operate closer to the coast or complex targets.

The very fact that the Kremlin has not stopped at a single project but is exploring multiple solutions shows that Russia has not abandoned the idea of creating a maritime unmanned component, even if it is not yet functioning as desired.

The Threat to Ukraine and the World Today

Russian maritime drones are not yet a tool capable of turning the situation in the Black Sea. Most of these platforms are still in the testing or limited-use phase, but it is precisely this transitional stage that creates the key risk: the field is developing systematically and does not appear temporary.

Moreover, according to sources, the adversary is accumulating these systems. For now, Ukrainian ports, logistics, shipping, and military platforms remain in the potential risk zone. This is not about massive operations, but about the gradual buildup of tools of influence.

Another danger lies in the logic of combined use. A maritime drone by itself may not be decisive, but when paired with aerial drones, intelligence, or missile strikes, it becomes part of a multi-layered attack.

A separate dimension of risk is the potential threat to ships of other countries. The expansion of Russia’s maritime drone arsenal means that these systems could be used not only against Ukrainian targets but also in broader maritime areas, including international shipping routes.

This applies both to scenarios of demonstrative pressure or attempts to control maritime areas, and to using drones to cover their own operations or evade pursuit. In a high-tension environment, this creates additional risks of incidents involving civilian or foreign vessels and increases the importance of maritime security far beyond the Ukrainian theater of operations.

“In strategic terms, Russia views the development of maritime drones as part of a long-term military policy aimed at asymmetric confrontation with states that have technologically advanced naval forces,” the Main Intelligence Directorate noted, adding that Ukraine continues to monitor their production for future neutralization.

The key point is that Russia sees the maritime drone sector as a long-term investment in the war. Technological and organizational limitations are currently restraining these plans, but the development trend is stable, giving Ukraine and the world reason to prepare for a new threat.

Tags: Black Sea battle emerging threats empr.media analysis maritime drones naval strategy russia ukraine war Ukraine defense