Black Sea News prepared ground maHow international sanctions against Russia can be expanded.
1. The international sanction policy is currently developing as an avalanche and proactively. Countries and businesses, trade unions – such as the dockers refusing to unload Russian vessels – retailers and more are joining it. Many types of sanctions are being looked into.2. Notably, Western observers welcome the fact that Western companies take initiative to go much further than their governments. Indeed, nobody instructed global companies to stop all cooperation with Russia but they have done so or are doing so. Russia has become toxic for the world and any cooperation with Russia is becoming shameful and destructive for countries and businesses.3. All economists across the world are now trying to at least understand, draw a complete list and evaluate the efficiency of all elements of the new sanctions. The most important objective is to forecast how long Russia’s economy will last in these conditions. The Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies joins the effort. 4. The goal of a realistic forecast is to answer the key question: How long should Ukraine’s Army and people stand until Russia – i.e. its capacity to conduct war – collapses? This is not just money. This is the lives and deaths of Ukrainians. This defines the planning of military strategy, international military and financial assistance etc. And, of course, personal plans of every Ukrainian citizen. Clearly, there is a difference between Russia’s collapse in a month or two, or in a year or two. This calls for different strategies. 5. What needs to be done in international sanctions policy: 5.1. Our analysis of Russia’s actions shows that it has focused on building schemes to bypass sanctions – primarily so that it is able to receive dual-use goods through China, other countries of Asia, especially the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), primarily through the EAEU Customs Union. The countries that are part of the EAEU Customs Union – Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Armenia – are also members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). 5.2. We should consider Russia’s extensive experience in bypassing sanctions built through operation under “Crimea and Donbas sanctions.” They have learned to do this well. 5.3. Therefore, we propose the governments of the civilized world to expand the sanctions imposed on Russia to CSTO countries, meaning the EAEU CUstoms Union, that are de jure and de facto Russia’s military allies.5. 4. Preventing Russia from using economic and trade ties of its military allies to bypass sanctions and continue the war should be the key rationale of expanding the sanctions imposed on Russia to CSTO countries.Russia russia ukraine war Ukraine