Effectiveness of Yuriy Kasyanov’s Drone Unit and the Politics of Confirmation

Effectiveness of Yuriy Kasyanov’s Drone Unit and the Politics of Confirmation
Yuriy Kasyanov

Ukraine’s command calls Yuriy Kasyanov’s drone unit ineffective – 299 drones, no confirmed hits, $1.3 million spent. Kasyanov insists the opposite: his low-cost drones struck Moscow and shut Russian airports, but proof is classified and politics drove the disbandment.

About the situation with Yuriy Kasyanov. The command’s position is simple.

The unit is ineffective. They say they were given 299 drones and everything necessary. Kasyanov’s unit went on missions 10 times, not a single target was destroyed (there is no confirmation), about $1.3 million was spent on the unit. Therefore — disband it.

Yuriy Kasyanov’s position is the opposite. The unit is effective. In terms of price versus result, there is nothing better. The unit bombed Red Square. They closed airports in Russia. There are confirmations, but there is a ban on their dissemination. The decision to disband is purely political. It was reported by Fedir Kushmeliuk.

Let’s sort this out.

Take, for example, the company Fire Point.

It produces roughly 100 units a day of its kamikaze drone FP-1. The state buys them for about $50k+ per unit. They probably buy almost everything that’s produced.

So, for Russian refineries to burn, Ukraine spends approximately $5 million USD per day!!!

Because, as we know, not every drone reaches its target and only a few do. So Fire Point easily consumes $150 million a month, launches about 3,000 drones over Russia per month, and yet manages to hit a few refineries because 2–3 drones out of 3,000 reached and we are happy. Everyone at the top is satisfied.

Context clear?

Now let’s estimate the chances for Yuriy Kasyanov’s 299 drones, each of which costs not $50k+ but less than $5k.

What did you realistically expect?

That’s why any fact of a drone reaching its target, which forced Russian aviation to close civilian airports, etc., has already paid for itself. Do you understand? Because for Russia the losses will be greater than $1.3 million.

Not to mention the image effect when Yuriy Kasyanov’s drone reached Red Square and exploded there!

P.S. I hardly believe that Yuriy Kasyanov’s drones can somehow inflict significant damage, since I don’t believe in their high accuracy under suppression, etc., or that one can somehow confirm the strike. And the warhead is too small to allow for inaccuracy. So if there aren’t people in Russia who filmed it and the explosion is usually minor, it’s unlikely they would film it. So confirmation simply may not exist. And even if, by chance, Ukraine used partner satellites or something else, that would be a state secret, and if Mr. Kasyanov revealed it, he would go to jail.

So it’s not so easy to provide that confirmation, even if it exists.

EMPR

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