The Kremlin Is Preparing a Large-Scale Provocation With Casualties to Derail Peace Talks — Foreign Intelligence Service

The Kremlin is preparing a large-scale provocation involving civilian casualties as part of a continued special operation aimed at derailing peace talks mediated by the United States.

This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing the press service of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.

“The operation in question is complex in nature. Following the so-called ‘attack on the residence of (Russian dictator Vladimir — ed.) Putin,’ we are recording the Kremlin’s spread of new fabricated information pretexts to prepare Russian and foreign audiences for further escalation,” the Foreign Intelligence Service reported.

Intelligence officials assess with a high degree of probability that the situation will shift from manipulative influence to an armed provocation by Russian security services, resulting in significant casualties. The expected timing is on the eve of, or during, the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar — January 7.

The site of the provocation could be a religious building or another facility with high symbolic significance, either in Russia or in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

To fabricate evidence of Ukraine’s alleged involvement, plans reportedly include the use of fragments from Western-made attack drones, which would be transported to the provocation site from the line of active hostilities.

“Exploiting fear and carrying out terrorist acts with civilian casualties under a ‘false flag’ fully corresponds to the operational style of Russian security services,” the Foreign Intelligence Service said.

According to intelligence data, the Putin regime has repeatedly used this tactic inside Russia, and the same model is now being exported abroad — a shift indirectly confirmed by public statements from senior Russian officials.

“We urge the media to question and carefully verify materials released by the Kremlin and to refrain from spreading Russian disinformation,” the Foreign Intelligence Service emphasized.

Russia’s statement

It should be recalled that recently Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Ukraine had allegedly carried out a drone attack on the state residence of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Russia’s Novgorod region on the night of December 29, referring to the residence in Valday.

According to Lavrov, Russian forces allegedly destroyed 91 Ukrainian drones.

At the same time, Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that “89 + 23 drones were intercepted across all regions, including 41 over the Novgorod region.”

As a result, the fate of approximately 50 drones remains unknown.

Two days after the claims of an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence, Russia’s Ministry of Defense even released a map showing the drones’ flight paths, which Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service described as fake.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected Russia’s accusations regarding the supposed “attack” on Putin’s residence and warned that such statements could be preparation for new strikes against Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry emphasized that the story of the attack is a fake that Moscow is using to undermine peace initiatives involving Kyiv and Washington.

More details on the alleged “attack” on Putin’s residence, Ukraine’s response, the position of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, and inconsistencies in statements by Russian authorities can be found in the RBC-Ukraine report.