For the Kremlin, This Is the Way Out of the War: Where Russia Is Preparing an Offensive and Why It’s Critical for Putin

The Defense Forces’ successes on the battlefield have disrupted Russia’s plans for a spring offensive. Nevertheless, the enemy is still preparing for active operations in certain sectors of the front.

Russian forces are concentrating on the Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivsk, and Zaporizhzhia directions. For 24 Kanal, experts revealed which sector the enemy is likely to strike with its main force and what underhanded tactics it might attempt.

What is the Russian army’s biggest challenge after winter?

Major Volodymyr Nazarenko, deputy commander of the “Freedom Force” battalion of the 4th “Rubizh” Brigade of the National Guard, said that the winter of 2026 was difficult for the Defense Forces. Severe frost, complex logistics, and other everyday challenges made operations tough.

However, he noted, it was even harder for the attacking side. The Russians struggled to mobilize and supply their forces, and they are now somewhat fatigued.

“Cases of frostbite constantly occurred among the enemy because Russia does not take care of its soldiers. For them, this is the cheapest, disposable resource,” emphasized Nazarenko.

According to the officer, the current actions of the Russians indicate that they had other manpower reserves, which they began to deploy as the weather improved.

For the most part, the enemy is unable to break through Ukrainian defenses. Russian soldiers are quickly eliminated in so-called kill zones, preventing the enemy from advancing further.

However, he noted, changes in the weather affect enemy tactics. Under better flying conditions, the Russians can deploy different types of drones. Ukrainian forces therefore need to remain resilient and use various tricks and tactics.

Meanwhile, Danylo Borysenko, head of intelligence of the anti-aircraft missile artillery division of the “Rubizh” Brigade, reported that with the warming weather, the enemy has been using less equipment, while the number of drones has indeed increased. The Russians are attempting to pressure from the air to compensate for their lack of assaults.

What is Russia’s main goal for the spring offensive?

Veteran and recipient of the Bohdan Khmelnytsky Order, Mykola Melnyk, believes that Russia’s primary focus during the spring–summer offensive campaign will be in Donetsk.

The fact is, Putin stated back in 2022 his intention to capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and since then it has been his persistent goal.

“Donetsk is their opportunity to exit the war. The Russians are looking for a way out of the war and cannot achieve it until they accomplish everything Putin has declared,” Melnyk said.

At the same time, he noted that the Russians have achieved some successes in Zaporizhzhia, although their formations there are not particularly strong. There may have been some miscalculations by Ukrainian commanders, which allowed the enemy to advance quickly in the Huliaipole direction. However, the Russian forces were ultimately pushed back.

In summary, the veteran said, the enemy’s main goal remains Donetsk, while the Zaporizhzhia and Lyman directions will serve as secondary axes during the offensive. Russia aims to stretch Ukrainian forces across the front.

Interestingly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that Russia’s spring offensive campaign has already failed, as it did not manage to carry out its original plan. However, the enemy is still trying to act in one way or another across different sectors of the front.

When and where will Russia launch an offensive?

Army General and former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Mykola Malomuzh, said that Russia is currently trying to generate new forces, searching for weak points in Ukraine’s defenses and building up reserves. At the same time, the daily losses inflicted on Russian troops by the Defense Forces are undermining the enemy’s offensive potential.

However, he noted that Russian forces are constantly attempting attacks along eight strategic operational directions and have even achieved limited advances in some areas. For example, the enemy is trying to break through on the Lyman–Sloviansk axis in order to create a northern corridor for an offensive into the Donetsk region.

Heavy fighting is currently ongoing for Kostiantynivka, as this sector is convenient for further operations toward Kramatorsk if it is captured. Russia is also continuing attempts to fully seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, suffering heavy losses there.

“The Huliaipole direction, which has always been weak, is now being considered by the enemy as an alternative to the Pokrovsk and Donetsk directions in order to move closer to Zaporizhzhia and expand large-scale operations across the entire region,” Malomuzh said.

The general noted that Russian forces are transferring troops and main strike groups to the Zaporizhzhia region. For a time, they even redeployed part of their forces from the Pokrovsk direction.

Overall, he concluded, Russia is actively preparing, and the spring offensive itself is expected to begin in late March or early April.

How are Ukraine’s Armed Forces disrupting Russia’s offensive plans?

Thanks to drones, the Defense Forces have prevented a large-scale Russian offensive and were able to launch counterattacks. The enemy began suffering enormous losses, with around 30,000–35,000 troops lost each month.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted that the Russian army continues its offensive operations, but Ukraine is successfully counterattacking. In particular, Ukrainian defenders are carrying out counterattacks in the south and fighting battles in the east. One of the hottest sectors remains the Donetsk direction.

The Institute for the Study of War also assessed that the Defense Forces have achieved success in one sector, while the Russian army has made no advances. In particular, Ukrainian troops are advancing on the Sloviansk axis. According to Ukraine’s 81st Separate Airmobile Slobozhanska Brigade, Ukrainian soldiers are destroying enemy crossings, artillery, and personnel while themselves operating under constant drone attacks.